“苏联制度的优越性在哪里？”
“成功地克服了在其它社会制度里不会存在的困难。”
Jul 30, 2009
Jul 28, 2009
屁大点事
省长和厅长同乘一电梯，省长放了个闷屁，臭不可闻周围人怒。省长训厅长说：你就不能憋出电梯放？厅长委屈直言说不是我放的，众窃笑。不久厅长被撤了，在大会上省长说：屁大点的事都担不起的干部要你何用！
Jul 23, 2009
How To Think Logically
Original URI: http://www.trinitysem.edu/Student/LessonInstruction/ThinkLogically.html
Base your writing on logical thinking. Learn to use inductive and deductive reasoning in your writing. Avoid common fallacies.
INDUCTIVE REASONING: When you reason inductively, you begin with a number of instances (facts or observations) and use them to draw a general conclusion. Whenever you interpret evidence, you reason inductively. The use of probability to form a generalization is called an inductive leap. Inductive arguments, rather than producing certainty, are thus intended to produce probable and believable conclusions. As your evidence mounts, your reader draws the conclusion that you intend. You must make sure that the amount of evidence is sufficient and not based on exceptional or biased sampling. Be sure that you have not ignored information that invalidates your conclusion (called the “neglected aspect”) or presented only evidence that supports a predetermined conclusion (known as “slanting”).
DEDUCTIVE REASONING: When you reason deductively, you begin with generalizations (premises) and apply them to a specific instance to draw a conclusion about that instance. Deductive reasoning often utilizes the syllogism, a line of thought consisting of a major premise, a minor premise and a conclusion; for example, All men are foolish (major premise); Smith is a man (minor premise); therefore, Smith is foolish (conclusion). Of course, your reader must accept the ideas or values that you choose as premises in order to accept the conclusion. Sometimes premises are not stated. A syllogism with an unstated major or minor premise, or even an unstated conclusion, needs to be examined with care because the omitted statement may contain an inaccurate generalization.
THE TOULMIN METHOD: Another way of viewing the process of logical thinking is through the Toulmin method. This model is less constrained than the syllogism and makes allowances for the important elements of probability, backing, or proof for the premise and rebuttal of the reader’s objections. This approach sees arguments as the progression from accepted facts or evidence (data) to a conclusion (claim) by way of a statement (warrant) that establishes a reasonable relationship between the two. The warrant is often implied in arguments, and like the unstated premise in the syllogism, needs careful examination to be acceptable. The writer can allow for exceptions to a major premise. Qualifiers such as probably, possibly, doubtless, and surely show the degree of certainty of the conclusion; rebuttal terms such as unless allow the writer to anticipate objections.
FALLACIES: A deductive argument must be both valid and true. A true argument is based on generally accepted, well-backed premises. Learn to distinguish between fact (based on verifiable data) and opinion (based on personal preferences). A valid argument follows a reasonable line of thinking.
Fallacies are faults in premises (truth) or in reasoning (validity). They may result from misusing or misrepresenting evidence, from relying on faulty premises or omitting a needed premise, or from distorting the issues. The following are some of the major forms of fallacies:
Non Sequitur: A statement that does not follow logically from what has just been said; in other words, a conclusion that does not follow from the premises.
Hasty Generalization: A generalization based on too little evidence or on exceptional or biased evidence.
Ad Hominem: Attacking the person who presents an issue rather than dealing logically with the issue itself.
Bandwagon: An argument saying, in effect, "Everyone's doing or saying or thinking this, so you should too."
Red Herring: Dodging the real issue by drawing attention to an irrelevant issue.
Either...Or: Stating that only two alternatives exist when in fact there are more than two.
False Analogy: The assumption that because two things are alike in some ways, they must be in other ways.
Equivocation: An assertion that falsely relies on the use of a term in two different senses.
Slippery Slope: The assumption that if one thing is allowed, it will be the first step in a downward spiral.
Oversimplification: A statement or argument that leaves out relevant considerations about an issue.
Begging the Question: An assertion that restates the point just made. Such an assertion is circular in that it draws as a conclusion a point stated in the premise.
False Cause: The assumption that because one event follows another, the first is the cause of the second. Sometimes called post hoc, ergo propter hoc ("after this, so because of this").
From: Pure Pleasure - Reborn © 2009
Base your writing on logical thinking. Learn to use inductive and deductive reasoning in your writing. Avoid common fallacies.
INDUCTIVE REASONING: When you reason inductively, you begin with a number of instances (facts or observations) and use them to draw a general conclusion. Whenever you interpret evidence, you reason inductively. The use of probability to form a generalization is called an inductive leap. Inductive arguments, rather than producing certainty, are thus intended to produce probable and believable conclusions. As your evidence mounts, your reader draws the conclusion that you intend. You must make sure that the amount of evidence is sufficient and not based on exceptional or biased sampling. Be sure that you have not ignored information that invalidates your conclusion (called the “neglected aspect”) or presented only evidence that supports a predetermined conclusion (known as “slanting”).
DEDUCTIVE REASONING: When you reason deductively, you begin with generalizations (premises) and apply them to a specific instance to draw a conclusion about that instance. Deductive reasoning often utilizes the syllogism, a line of thought consisting of a major premise, a minor premise and a conclusion; for example, All men are foolish (major premise); Smith is a man (minor premise); therefore, Smith is foolish (conclusion). Of course, your reader must accept the ideas or values that you choose as premises in order to accept the conclusion. Sometimes premises are not stated. A syllogism with an unstated major or minor premise, or even an unstated conclusion, needs to be examined with care because the omitted statement may contain an inaccurate generalization.
THE TOULMIN METHOD: Another way of viewing the process of logical thinking is through the Toulmin method. This model is less constrained than the syllogism and makes allowances for the important elements of probability, backing, or proof for the premise and rebuttal of the reader’s objections. This approach sees arguments as the progression from accepted facts or evidence (data) to a conclusion (claim) by way of a statement (warrant) that establishes a reasonable relationship between the two. The warrant is often implied in arguments, and like the unstated premise in the syllogism, needs careful examination to be acceptable. The writer can allow for exceptions to a major premise. Qualifiers such as probably, possibly, doubtless, and surely show the degree of certainty of the conclusion; rebuttal terms such as unless allow the writer to anticipate objections.
FALLACIES: A deductive argument must be both valid and true. A true argument is based on generally accepted, well-backed premises. Learn to distinguish between fact (based on verifiable data) and opinion (based on personal preferences). A valid argument follows a reasonable line of thinking.
Fallacies are faults in premises (truth) or in reasoning (validity). They may result from misusing or misrepresenting evidence, from relying on faulty premises or omitting a needed premise, or from distorting the issues. The following are some of the major forms of fallacies:
Non Sequitur: A statement that does not follow logically from what has just been said; in other words, a conclusion that does not follow from the premises.
Hasty Generalization: A generalization based on too little evidence or on exceptional or biased evidence.
Ad Hominem: Attacking the person who presents an issue rather than dealing logically with the issue itself.
Bandwagon: An argument saying, in effect, "Everyone's doing or saying or thinking this, so you should too."
Red Herring: Dodging the real issue by drawing attention to an irrelevant issue.
Either...Or: Stating that only two alternatives exist when in fact there are more than two.
False Analogy: The assumption that because two things are alike in some ways, they must be in other ways.
Equivocation: An assertion that falsely relies on the use of a term in two different senses.
Slippery Slope: The assumption that if one thing is allowed, it will be the first step in a downward spiral.
Oversimplification: A statement or argument that leaves out relevant considerations about an issue.
Begging the Question: An assertion that restates the point just made. Such an assertion is circular in that it draws as a conclusion a point stated in the premise.
False Cause: The assumption that because one event follows another, the first is the cause of the second. Sometimes called post hoc, ergo propter hoc ("after this, so because of this").
From: Pure Pleasure - Reborn © 2009
自由思想十诫
1. Do not feel absolutely certain of anything.
2. Do not think it worthwhile to produce belief by concealing evidence, for the evidence is sure to come to light.
3. Never try to discourage thinking, for you are sure to succeed.
4. When you meet with opposition, even if it is from your family, endeavour to overcome it with argument and not by authority, for a victory dependent upon authority is unreal and illusory.
5. Have no respect for the authority of others, for there are always contrary authorities to be found.
6. Do not use power to suppress opinions you think pernicious, for if you do, the opinions will suppress you.
7. Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.
8. Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent than in passive agreement, for if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter.
9. Be scrupulously truthful even if the truth is inconvenient, for it is more inconvenient when you try to conceal it.
10. Do not feel envious of the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise, for only a fool will think that is happiness.
-- from “Reflections on Ethics” by Bertrand Russell
2. Do not think it worthwhile to produce belief by concealing evidence, for the evidence is sure to come to light.
3. Never try to discourage thinking, for you are sure to succeed.
4. When you meet with opposition, even if it is from your family, endeavour to overcome it with argument and not by authority, for a victory dependent upon authority is unreal and illusory.
5. Have no respect for the authority of others, for there are always contrary authorities to be found.
6. Do not use power to suppress opinions you think pernicious, for if you do, the opinions will suppress you.
7. Do not fear to be eccentric in opinion, for every opinion now accepted was once eccentric.
8. Find more pleasure in intelligent dissent than in passive agreement, for if you value intelligence as you should, the former implies a deeper agreement than the latter.
9. Be scrupulously truthful even if the truth is inconvenient, for it is more inconvenient when you try to conceal it.
10. Do not feel envious of the happiness of those who live in a fool's paradise, for only a fool will think that is happiness.
-- from “Reflections on Ethics” by Bertrand Russell
Jul 15, 2009
恐怖的中国
基地组织曾派出七名恐怖分子袭击中国。结果：
一人在炸北京西直门立交桥时转晕桥上﹔
一人在炸公车时没挤上车﹔
一人在炸超市时，炸弹遥控器被盗﹔
一人在炸政府大楼时被保安狂揍："叫你讨薪，叫你上访"；
一人在山西成功地炸矿，死伤数千人，潜回基地后，半年没见任何新闻报导，遂被基地组织以"撒谎罪"处决了﹔
一人曾经尝试炸广州，谁知刚一出火车站炸药包就给飞车党抢了，半天没回过神﹔
最近，又派一女恐怖分子去炸河南，被骗去做了媳妇！
基地组织下定决心从小培养一个中国化的恐怖分子来袭击中国。没想到孩子刚生下来不久，就被三鹿给弄死了。
一人在炸北京西直门立交桥时转晕桥上﹔
一人在炸公车时没挤上车﹔
一人在炸超市时，炸弹遥控器被盗﹔
一人在炸政府大楼时被保安狂揍："叫你讨薪，叫你上访"；
一人在山西成功地炸矿，死伤数千人，潜回基地后，半年没见任何新闻报导，遂被基地组织以"撒谎罪"处决了﹔
一人曾经尝试炸广州，谁知刚一出火车站炸药包就给飞车党抢了，半天没回过神﹔
最近，又派一女恐怖分子去炸河南，被骗去做了媳妇！
基地组织下定决心从小培养一个中国化的恐怖分子来袭击中国。没想到孩子刚生下来不久，就被三鹿给弄死了。
Jul 13, 2009
Jul 2, 2009
论一座大楼的倒掉
楼房说：站着累了，没想到躺会儿，却被记者拍到了……
开发商说：一房多用，站着商品房，躺下骨灰盒！
政府说：正式楼盘都没有倒下，倒下的是临时楼。
警方说：“房子没有倒，它只是在做腑卧撑而已！”
新华社说：周围楼房情绪稳定，纷纷表示此楼倒下对它们影 响不大。
专家说：站起来是小高层!倒下去就是连体别墅了!开发商太 有才了!
业主说：你知道世界上最最痛苦的事是什么吗？你买的不是 倒的那栋楼，而是旁边那栋!
领导说：“多难兴楼市”
外电说：意大利有斜塔!中国有躺楼!
网友说：“根基不牢，再高的上层建筑也会倒掉！
文章 from: http://kisshi.com/2009/07/01/da-lou/
图片 from: www.sohu.com
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